The MacRib Test run of problems in 2008 for the 3Fs (Food, Fuel, and Finance) will culminate in widespread problems in 2010.
Maybe this can be expressed in a Pythagorean Theorem as Food^2 + Finance^2 = Finance^2. The mystery will be the final shape of the triangle. There is no known constant other than it contains a right angle.
I’ve already detailed my concerns over Finance as given in my post Financial Implosion Ahead in 2010 among others in the economics category of my blog.
I will briefly focus on food this morning by rewinding to the headlines of 2008:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/consumer_goods/article3799327.ece
Era of cheap food ends as prices surge
Families have been warned that the prices of basic foods will rise steeply again because of acute shortages in commodity markets.
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The price of rice, which has almost tripled in a year, rose 2 per cent on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday as the United Nations food agency gave warning that millions faced starvation because aid agencies were unable to meet the additional financial burden.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/3340417/Food-shortages-how-will-we-feed-the-world.html
Bob Watson, the chief scientist at the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, puts the rise in the price of commodity crops such as wheat down to a number of factors: higher demand for grain to feed livestock in China, where increasing affluence means more people want to eat meat; drought in Australia for three years, meaning it has had to import wheat; market jitters brought on by the sight of several countries stopping exporting grain; speculators seeing a chance to make money; and, of course, the sudden extra demand for food crops such as maize for use in biofuels, in both Europe and the United States.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24316114
Tight supplies may ultimately force Americans to adjust diets
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Now, news that some wholesale clubs appear to be seeing a run on food staples such as rice is raising the question of whether Americans could ever face a situation many of us can’t even fathom — a shortage of the food we take for granted.
The good news: Experts say the short answer is no.
“I really don’t see any chance of that,” said Jerry Bange, chair of the World Agriculture Outlook Board for the Department of Agriculture.
Still, that doesn’t mean Americans aren’t facing any food woes. The price of staples such as corn, wheat and rice have skyrocketed in recent years, and the cost increases are not expected to abate any time soon. For Americans, that means higher prices for everything from bread to meat, since cattle and other animals are raised on a grain-based diets.
Americans also are seeing the tightest supply of wheat since 1946, and soybean supplies also are uncommonly low. Although there is by no means a shortage, the situation could become problematic if weather patterns make for poor crops in the coming seasons.
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Food prices are rising, and supplies are tightening, for a number of reasons. These include a growing middle class in the developing world that is buying more food, an increase in the price of fuel used to produce and transport food and a move to plant more crops for ethanol and other biofuels instead of food. Weather also has been a factor, and a weak U.S. dollar has affected the situation.
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“A number of us as consumers will have to adjust our food consumption patterns,” Hurt said.
More on this topic later.
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