Friday, October 30, 2009

Ghetto Finance Fri 10/30/09: The glass is half full? WTF?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amqUuq8.tRzQ

“The glass may be half full, but it’s filling slowly,” said Alan Gayle.

Me:  The glass if half full, and the government is the bartender.

Consumer sentiment is far from strong.

Me:  No shit Sherlock

Companies have to show that they have a sustainable plan.

Me:  When has this ever been a requirement for American capitalism?

Stocks will advance, but that will happen more selectively, as investors question momentum.

Me:  Stocks will advance, but please keep in mind that most of the action is completely disconnected from the economic reality of normal Americans.

Increasing consumption is not sustainable or justifiable

I was in danger of quoting nef’s Great Transition report every day last week, so I held this one over, but this is just about the perfect articulation of the make wealth history premise:

The environmental and economic crises are not separate but interconnected events. It is the high levels of debt-fuelled consumption in developed countries that have landed us with dangerously high concentrations of CO2 and put pressure on ecosystem resources… While there is a clear case for poor countries to improve their living standards, increasing consumption further in developed countries is not sustainable or justifiable. In fact, developed countries need to do the exact opposite.

Exactly.

nef have a new-look website this week, I notice. Go and take a look.

Isn't a Welfare State American?

An age ago I read Ayn Rand’s the Fountainhead and read up on her views on Objectivism. She viewed the ideal economic system as unrestrained laissez faire capitalism. No government intervention in the economy. No welfare state.

She was, and remains, a major influence on the Libertarian Party of the United States. Their web page on Poverty and Welfare includes the following (retrieved October 30, 2009)

1. End Welfare

None of the proposals currently being advanced by either conservatives or liberals is likely to fix the fundamental problems with our welfare system. Current proposals for welfare reform, including block grants, job training, and “workfare” represent mere tinkering with a failed system.

It is time to recognize that welfare cannot be reformed: it should be ended.

We should eliminate the entire social welfare system. This includes eliminating AFDC, food stamps, subsidized housing, and all the rest. Individuals who are unable to fully support themselves and their families through the job market must, once again, learn to rely on supportive family, church, community, or private charity to bridge the gap.

2. Establish a dollar-for-dollar tax credit for contributions to private charity

If the federal government’s attempt at charity has been a dismal failure, private efforts have been much more successful. America is the most generous nation on earth. We already contribute more than $125 billion annually to charity. However, as we phase out inefficient government welfare, private charities must be able to step up and fill the void.

To help facilitate this transfer of responsibility from government welfare to private charity, the federal government should offer a dollar-for-dollar tax credit for contributions to private charities that provide social-welfare services. That is to say, if an individual gives a dollar to charity, he should be able to reduce his tax liability by a dollar.

It sounds appealing. But I can’t imagine that working. We had that economic system in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. People who lost their jobs in times of depression or recession were vulnerable to homeless, starvation, malnutrition. Many of their children were unable to go to school, having literally no clothing.

So this statement: “Individuals who are unable to fully support themselves and their families through the job market must, once again, learn to rely on supportive family, church, community, or private charity to bridge the gap.” Or what? What if they can’t? What if their entire family or community is out of work and out of money? Charities in the early 1930s quickly ran out of money. What to do with the parent who has a child with special needs or massive medical expenses? And if there is no charity to help pay for those expenses? Let the child die, even if he has a treatable condition.

Is this what we strive to build as a community? I’m not one who views the government as a solution for everything. But in the 21st century is the best society we can build one that can be so brutal to let people suffer and die when they need not? Does the child of irresponsible parents deserve to be punished for their mistakes? Does a person deserve to suffer because of her genetic code? Is leveraging the government to tend to people’s basic needs really that much of an anathema to America? Consider our founding document, the Declaration of Independence:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Climate Wars--Videos

01-18 The Climate Wars 1of3 Battle Begins

02-18 The Climate Wars 1of3 Battle Begins

03-18 The Climate Wars 1of3 Battle Begins

04-18 The Climate Wars 1of3 Battle Begins

05-18 The Climate Wars 1of3 Battle Begins

06-18 The Climate Wars 1of3 Battle Begins

07-18 The Climate Wars 2of3 Fightback

08-18 The Climate Wars 2of3 Fightback

09-18 The Climate Wars 2of3 Fightback

10-18 The Climate Wars 2of3 Fightback

11-18 The Climate Wars 2of3 Fightback

12-18 The Climate Wars 2of3 Fightback

13-18 The Climate Wars 3of3 Fight for the Future

14-18 The Climate Wars 3of3 Fight for the Future

15-18 The Climate Wars 3of3 Fight for the Future

16-18 The Climate Wars 3of3 Fight for the Future

17-18 The Climate Wars 3of3 Fight for the Future

18-18 The Climate Wars 3of3 Fight for the Future

Background Articles and Videos White House Releases Landmark Climate Change Report

Unstoppable Solar Cycles

Professor Fred Singer on Climate Change Pt 1

Professor Fred Singer on Climate Change Pt 2

Climate Change – Is CO2 the cause? – Pt 1 of 4

Climate Change – Is CO2 the cause? – Pt 2 of 4

Climate Change – Is CO2 the cause? – Pt 3 of 4

Climate Change – Is CO2 the cause? – Pt 4 of 4

CO2: Undergirding Modern Science

Related Posts On Pronk Palisades Global Warming/Climate Change Lord Christopher Monckton–Climate Change–Treaty–Videos “We Can Reverse Climate Change”–President Barack Obama–Liar or Fool–Or Both–You Be The Judge! John Holdren–Science Czar–Videos John Holdren: Global Warming: What Do We Know and Should Do–Videos The Obama Depression Has Arrived: 15,000,000 to 25,000,000 Unemployed Americans–Stimulus Package and Bailouts A Failure–400,000 Leave Labor Force In July! Facing Fundamental Facts Gore Grilled & Gingrich Gouged–American People Oppose Massive Carbon Cap and Trade Tax Increase–Videos National Center for Policy Analysis–A Global Warming Primer Global Warming is The Greatest Hoax, Scam and Disinformation Campaign in History Global Warming Videos Global Warming Books Global Warming Sites  The Heidelberg Appeal: Beware of False Gods and Prophets

Most sectoral funds lag behind Sensex

At a time when the benchmark Sensex is scaling new peaks, most sectoral funds have underperformed the index over the past one year, banking sector funds being the only exception.

Other sectoral funds such as pharma, technology and FMCG have recorded an average gain of 70.55 per cent, 67.63 per cent and 59.46 per cent, respectively, in the past one-year against 72.04 per cent return on Sensex in the same period.

The permutation-combination of constituent stocks of different funds is one of the reasons for the difference in performances between various sectoral funds and the benchmark index.

“The difference in the performance of the benchmark index and sectoral indices is largely due to the varied composition of these indices. While the Sensex comprises the large-cap companies across sectors, sectoral indices comprise companies from a specific industry,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capital. Advisors are advising to opt for diversified funds having orientation towards large-cap stocks with an investment horizon of at least 2 to 3 years.

Virtual Worlds

 

 

 

 

 

Virtual worlds are becoming a major topic when it comes to participating on a local or global scale. There are many programs that are being developed to navigate through ancient architectural civilizations and even in the present, traveling around urban cities. These programs enable people to explore a vast amount of information, as well as pilot through artificial realms to meet people and view objects.

I am currently on a team to redefine how we experience New York City during the day versus the night. This involves a lot of data collection and understanding how these spaces feel in the daylight environment versus the night environment from a lighting stand point. One popular web program that has taken the first steps to this experiential experience is Second Life. They advertise this space as a place to connect, to shop, to work, to explore, to be different and free yourself and mind, and be who you want to be. This is definitely taking this idea of the iPhone as your museum guide to a much different and extreme limit, but this is a potential program that will be developed by many museums in the coming years and the beginning of this investigation have already begun.

The New York Hall of Science has partnered with the Greater Southern Tier BOCES SciCentr program on a project to engage an ethnically and economically diverse group of young people in creating a Virtual Hall of Science (VHOS). This entails designing, building and staffing the virtual science center while working and interacting with science and education professionals throughout the process. VHOS is seen as a long term program that will encourage students to develop and plan the future of their museum as they see fit. This program will further enhance the already strong connects NYSCI has with its community and student science education program.

In either case, the idea of a virtual world that enables people to experience a museum or, for that matter, many different cities from the comfort of their homes is a great start to spark interest, but the fact of the matter is that this will never change how we truly experience something that is tangible.

Stephen Kaye

Monday, October 26, 2009

MysteryHedgie: A Tale Of Two Trades

MysteryHedgie notes two prospective trades…

Two trendlines; if they break; take the trade.  Many (ourselves included) have documented the weakness in the TRAN index since Oil broke through $80 last week;  fewer are talking about the concurrent weakness in bonds (see TLT below), also stung by $80 oil.  TRAN and TLT are both near trendlines which, if broken (below 3750 in TRAN, 93.50 in TLT), have the ability to change the market’s psychology toward growth prospects in 2010. 

Given the traditional month end bid and the end of normally volatile October, it is less likely that these levels get broken, but if they do, underhedged books will be quickly adjusted.                                            

TLT Sits On Trendline

Ekonomi : Sekarang atau Tidak Sama Sekali

Suara Pembaruan

2009-10-26Sekarang atau Tidak Sama Sekali

SP/Alex Suban

Oleh: Bambang PS Brodjonegoro,Guru Besar FEUI

Kontroversi seputar pembentukan Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu (KIB) II masih menghiasi halaman surat kabar maupun media lainnya. Namun, hal tersebut akan surut dengan sendirinya seiring dengan perjalanan waktu dan beralihnya perhatian masyarakat pada tantangan yang dihadapi kabinet itu sendiri.

Khusus untuk bidang ekonomi, tantangan jangka pendek jelas terkait dengan proses pemulihan krisis ekonomi global. Pertumbuhan ekonomi 2010 akan menjadi target awal kabinet baru dan akan menjadi fokus perhatian masyarakat.

Mengacu pada target tersebut, tahun pertama KIB II akan disibukkan dengan upaya mengembalikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada jalur normal. Melihat pola pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tiga tahun terakhir, jalur normal tersebut mungkin bisa didefinisikan sebagai menjaga tingkat pertumbuhan konsumsi masyarakat, meningkatkan pertumbuhan investasi secara signifikan, memperbaiki efektivitas alokasi pengeluaran pemerintah, serta memulihkan ekspor produk dan jasa Indonesia sekaligus memperlancar impor barang modal.

Keberhasilan Indonesia untuk tidak terimbas dampak krisis terlalu besar, dicapai melalui keberhasilan menjaga keseimbangan antara kebijakan ekonomi yang berorientasi global dan domestik. Dengan kata lain, suatu perekonomian akan mempunyai daya tahan krisis yang kuat apabila mempunyai perekonomian domestik yang sehat dan dinamis, di samping mempunyai daya saing global dan pengawasan sistem keuangan yang kokoh.

Untuk mengejar target pertumbuhan 2010, sekitar 6 persen, ketahanan perekonomian domestik tetap menjadi landasan utama melalui perbaikan daya beli masyarakat sebagai kunci dari ketahanan tersebut. Perbaikan daya beli masyarakat bisa dilakukan dari dua arah secara sekaligus, yaitu meningkatkan upah atau pendapatan nominal masyarakat dan sekaligus mengurangi beban biaya hidup masyarakat sendiri. Peningkatan upah nominal akan berlangsung secara berkesinambungan apabila kestabilan ekonomi makro terjaga, ekonomi terus tumbuh, dan penyerapan tenaga kerja baru mampu mengurangi pengangguran.

Subsidi Terarah

Tidak kalah pentingnya adalah upaya mengurangi beban biaya hidup masyarakat melalui kebijakan seperti subsidi terarah (kepada kelompok yang membutuhkan), penyediaan layanan publik berstandar nasional, harga bahan pokok yang wajar, serta kemudahan akses bagi semua kebutuhan dasar.

KIB I mungkin sudah berhasil meletakkan landasan bagi upaya peningkatan upah nominal secara berkesinambungan, namun masih ada pekerjaan rumah yang ditinggalkan untuk KIB II, yaitu mengurangi beban biaya hidup masyarakat. Presiden dan Wapres, dengan dukungan menteri terkait, diharapkan fokus pada upaya ini, karena sejalan dengan tekad Presiden untuk memperbaiki kesejahteraan masyarakat.

Kebijakan subsidi terarah sebenarnya sudah dimulai dengan bantuan langsung tunai (BLT) yang sempat memicu kontroversi, karena dianggap menggampangkan masalah, tidak mendidik bagi penerimanya, serta berpotensi ricuh dalam implementasinya terkait dengan akurasi data.

Tidak ada salahnya apabila KIB II segera menyempurnakan implementasi BLT itu sendiri, baik dari segi jenis subsidi maupun implementasinya. BLT bersyarat sudah saatnya diterapkan bagi kelompok rumah tangga yang tidak tergolong kelompok paling miskin, sebagai bentuk pemberdayaan masyarakat itu sendiri.

Hal lain yang juga menjadi batu ujian bagi pemerintahan lima tahun ke depan adalah kemampuan menangani subsidi BBM dan listrik, yang selama ini lebih masuk lahan politik dibanding ekonomi. Diversifikasi sumber energi dan mengurangi kebergantungan pada BBM, jelas merupakan salah satu solusi, namun memakan waktu yang tidak sebentar dan dana yang tidak sedikit. Dalam jangka pendek, skema subsidi terarah dapat menjadi solusi dengan prioritas pada angkutan umum serta kelompok R1 (rumah tangga golongan I) dan UKM dalam konsumsi listrik.

Layanan Berstandar Nasional

Penyediaan layanan publik berstandar nasional adalah tugas besar lainnya yang menanti pemerintah lima tahun ke depan. Dalam hal ini dibutuhkan kerja sama yang baik antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah, mengingat tugas penyediaan layanan publik dasar sudah menjadi tanggung jawab pemerintah daerah.

Pemerintah pusat harus bekerja keras menetapkan standar nasional layanan tersebut dan pemerintah daerah harus mempunyai komitmen mengalokasikan dana dalam APBD untuk mencapai standar tersebut. Kebijakan ini akan berdampak signifikan pada pengurangan kemiskinan absolut, karena berpengaruh positif pada upah atau pendapatan riil masyarakat.

Pada tahap awal, layanan publik dasar yang perlu mendapatkan prioritas berstandar nasional di setiap daerah adalah pendidikan dasar dan menengah, kesehatan masyarakat, serta infrastruktur dasar. Khusus untuk pembangunan infrastruktur yang menjadi salah satu prioritas pemerintahan baru, perlu dipertegas keberadaan skema PPP (public private participation) untuk mempercepat pembangunan infrastruktur yang bersifat cost recovery seperti jalan tol, pelabuhan, pembangkit listrik, serta peranan dominan pemerintah dalam membangun dan merehabilitasi infrastruktur dasar desa dan kota.

Laju inflasi yang cukup rendah pada 2009 perlu dipertahankan ke depan sehingga daya beli masyarakat tidak tergerus terlalu besar. Akan menjadi tantangan bagi pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia apakah laju inflasi rendah tersebut bisa dicapai pada 2010, di mana diperkirakan perekonomian global mulai pulih.

Ketersediaan dan dinamika harga kebutuhan pokok tetap menjadi faktor utama tinggi rendahnya inflasi di Indonesia, sehingga koordinasi sektoral di pemerintah tetap diperlukan. Tidak boleh dilupakan bahwa pemerintah daerah juga punya peran besar menjaga inflasi daerahnya masing- masing.

Memang tidak mudah menjadi pemerintah di alam demokratis dengan harapan pemilih yang demikian tinggi. Namun, apa yang baru dikemukakan tersebut adalah hal yang mendasar bagi perekonomian Indonesia, yang sedang bergerak menuju perekonomian negara maju (developed country).

Lima tahun ke depan adalah saatnya Indonesia masuk sebagai anggota emerging economies, yang saat ini dikenal sebagai BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India, dan Cina/Tiongkok). Masuknya Indonesia dalam G-20 adalah momentum yang tidak boleh hilang. Untuk menjadi kekuatan ekonomi yang diperhitungkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi disertai inflasi rendah adalah prasyarat mutlak.

Belajar dari pengalaman anggota BRIC, menjadi sangat penting agar kekurangan yang mereka alami tidak terjadi di Indonesia. Rusia yang terlalu bergantung pada perekonomian eksternal, perekonomiannya sempat terkontraksi 10 persen, sedangkan India masih dihadapkan pada kemiskinan absolut yang parah.

Keseimbangan perekonomian global dan domestik serta pertumbuhan berkualitas adalah jawaban yang tepat untuk masalah tersebut. Mudah-mudahan Presiden SBY mengakhiri jabatannya pada 2014 nanti dengan suatu catatan emas sebagai Presiden yang meletakkan fondasi yang kokoh untuk Indonesia menjadi negara maju. Untuk Pak SBY, Pak Boed, dan segenap anggota KIB II, lima tahun ini adalah “Now or Never” (sekarang atau tidak sama sekali). *

Suara Pembaruan

2009-10-26Sinkronisasi Pusat-Daerah Kunci Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

[JAKARTA] Sinkronisasi antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah sangat diperlukan, demi mencapai target pembangunan ekonomi lima tahun mendatang. Koordinasi antardepartemen dengan pemerintah pusat, provinsi, dan kabupaten menjadi kunci jawaban.

Menurut ekonom Universitas Indonesia, Ninasapti Triaswati, target pemerintah untuk mencapai tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 7 persen pada 2014, menekan angka kemiskinan 8-10 persen dan mengurangi pengangguran, dapat tercapai bila terciptanya sinergi program pusat dan daerah.

“Pemerintah pusat harus sadar bahwa daerah memiliki kewenangan sendiri. Begitu juga dengan pemda, yang harus menyadari akan tingginya target pertumbuhan ekonomi ingin dicapai. Hal ini bertujuan untuk menciptakan adanya iklim investasi dan usaha yang baik di Tanah Air ini,” ujarnya ketika dihubungi SP, Minggu (25/10).

Nina menambahkan, segala peraturan daerah yang berlawanan atau menyulitkan dunia usaha, harus segera diganti. Selama ini, biasanya hambatan ada di tingkat daerah, apalagi kebijakan tiap daerah berbeda-beda.

Perlu adanya, terobosan baru, guna menarik para investor dan tidak ada lagi jalur yang berbelit-belit dalam pengurusan dunia usaha. Untuk itu, pemerintah pusat bisa memaksakan kinerja pada pemda demi memperlancar peredaran arus barang.

KEK

Nina mengimbau, selain reformasi birokrasi, perlu diciptakan juga pemberian insentif ataupun reward. Jalur satu pintu pun dapat memudahkan terciptanya kawasan ekonomi khusus (KEK).

“Jangan hanya wilayah Batam saja yang menjadi model, daerah lain pun bisa menjadi contoh yang sehat pada masalah infrastruktur, misalnya masalah pembebasan lahan untuk jalan tol,” katanya.

Namun, janji pemerintah tersebut, tetap harus dipantau selalu. Program-program yang telah disusun oleh kabinet tim perekonomian harus dapat direalisasikan. Mas- yarakat luas berhak untuk menagih segala janji-jani pemerintah.

Senada dengan itu, pemerintah akan melakukan pembahasan tentang penetapan insentif baru bagi dunia usaha dengan pelaku usaha satu dan anggota kabinet ekonomi sebulan sekali.

“Hal itu harus dibahas secara mendalam. Kami tidak ingin insentif yang diberikan itu justru menghambat perkembangan sektor lain. Untuk itu, diperlukan adanya sinkronisasi regulasi satu aturan dengan yang lainnya,” tegas Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian Hatta Rajasa usai memimpin rapat koordinasi antara Kadin dengan jajaran menteri bidang perekonomian Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu (KIB) II dalam penyusunan program 100 hari di Jakarta, Sabtu (24/10).

Untuk mewujudkan pembangunan ekonomi lima tahun mendatang tersebut, maka pemerintah menetapkan enam sektor yang akan menjadi fokus utama arah pembangunan ekonomi dalam lima tahun ke depan.

Keenam sektor itu, katanya, adalah infrastruktur, energi, ketahanan pangan, transportasi, pengembangan usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (UMKM), serta revitalisasi industri dan jasa.

Hatta menegaskan, masalah infrastruktur harus dise-lesaikan supaya tidak menghambat arus barang antardaerah di Indonesia. Masalah percepatan infrastruktur, menja- di prioritas pemerintah dalam lima tahun ini.

“Perbaikan dan pengembangan infrastruktur tidak bisa hanya mengandalkan dana pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah mengajak pihak swasta sebagai mitra untuk membiayai pembangunan infrastruktur,” ucap Hatta yang menjabat sebagai Ketua Komite Kerjasama Percepatan Pembangunan Infrastruktur (KKPPI).

Ia menjelaskan, percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur juga akan menggerakkan sektor riil ke depan. Hal itu dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan memberi sentimen positif pada dunia internasional untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia.

Kepala Badan Kebijak- an Fiskal Anggito Abimanyu, juga menuturkan pemerin- tah sudah memberikan insentif dalam Undang-Undang APBN. Hal itu akan dikaji pada Pertemuan Nasional (National Summit) yang berlangsung 29-31 Oktober 2009 nanti. [H-15]

Suara Pembaruan

2009-10-26Infrastruktur dan Sektor Riil Harus Jadi Fokus
Tim Ekonomi

[JAKARTA] Berbagai hal harus menjadi fokus bagi pemerintahan baru. Sorotan utama adalah terkait pembangunan infrastruktur dan memajukan sektor riil.

Ketua Center for Information and Development Studies (Cides), Umar Juoro mengatakan, salah satu masalah besar terkait dengan ketersediaan listrik, baik di daerah maupun kota besar.

“Sekarang, bisa dilihat kalau listrik itu byar pet. Tapi, masih ada harapan yang cukup besar terhadap pembangkit listrik, karena swasta bisa berperan dan pendanaan mereka cukup terbuka,” ujarnya seusai diskusi “Membedah Formasi Kabinet SBY Bidang Ekonomi, Antara Harapan dan Tantangan” di Jakarta, pekan lalu.

Menurutnya, dibandingkan situasi listrik yang byar pet, masyarakat akan lebih memilih membayar sedikit lebih mahal, tapi kondisinya lebih baik, daripada harus menanggung risiko negatif lain dari listrik yang byar pet tersebut.

Sedangkan, yang dirasa agak berat adalah mengenai infrastruktur jalan karena menyangkut pembebasan lahan. Di sisi lain, perlu didorong keberadaan transportasi massal. Pihaknya menyayangkan beberapa posisi menteri diduduki oleh orang-orang baru, sehingga perlu penyesuaian terlebih dulu terhadap tugas yang akan menjadi tanggung jawabnya.

“Diharapkan, masa penyesuaian tidak akan berlangsung lama. Tapi, intinya, perlu perbaikan selangkah atau dua langkah dalam infrastruktur, bisa dimulai dari listrik,” kata Umar.

Selain itu, lanjut Umar, juga menyangkut masalah ekonomi biaya tinggi. Bisa dilihat, di daerah dan pusat, perizinan dan pungutan masih menjadi masalah. “Menjadi tugas pemerintah untuk memperbaikinya segera. Pengaruhnya akan sangat besar, sebab faktanya Indonesia masih diminati oleh banyak investor, baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri,” katanya.

Kondusif

Pembiayaan tidak akan menjadi isu, asalkan kondisi dari dalam negeri kondusif, termasuk pemerintah, bisa memfasilitasinya dengan baik. “Selama ini, hambatan utama pada infrastruktur dan sektor riil berkaitan dengan tugas pemerintah. Sedangkan, peran swasta sudah berjalan dengan bagus,” tuturnya.

Menurut Umar, tim ekonomi kabinet di sektor makro dinilai sudah cukup kuat, sebab mereka sudah berpengalaman dan sesuai dengan keinginan pasar. Tapi, justru yang di sektor mikro atau riil yang masih banyak dipertanyakan.

Melihat komposisinya, Umar mengemukakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 5-6 persen tidak mustahil tercapai. Namun, dibutuhkan kerja keras dan tim menteri sektor riil yang lebih kuat.

“Hal itu menjadi tantangan bagi Hatta Rajasa selaku Menko Perekonomian untuk bisa menyinergikan sektor ekonomi makro dan mikro,” kata Umar.

Dia menilai, bisa dilakukan reshuffle Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu II, jika dibutuhkan. “Hal itu akan sangat ditentukan oleh posisi Kepala Unit Kerja Presiden dan Pengawasan dan Pengendalian Pembangunan yang cukup ketat dalam melakukan pe- nilaian,” katanya. [D-12]

Montana Memories

On The Montana Trail!

I hit the trail the end of last month – The Montana Trail, that is.  It was part of the State of Montana’s annual HR conference.  Actually, it was just part of the workshop I did on Role-Based Assessment and the CHI Indicators.  The Montana Trail is a group experience designed to help a large group of people quantify the value of a Role-diverse, coherent team.

The Sheriffs of The Montana Trail

The most exciting part, for me, was finally meeting the team that’s been using Role-Based Assessment to drive change through their state.  Now keep in mind that not only does this state have a visionary Governor but they are also one of the very few states that is gaining in jobs, not losing them.  So you know they’re doing something right and they have the stamina to keep driving till they get everyone home safe from the trail drive.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

With very little preparation from me, the Sheriffs – AKA the HR team -  jumped right in and made the game theirs.  They got their ten gallon hats, found a cowbell for me to call the rounds with, made sure I had pictures to show at the office (and here!), and, in general, made me feel as if I’d known them forever.  (That means a lot to this former New Yorker.)

But I shouldn’t be surprised.  That’s what coherent teams do.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Rich Germans Demand Higher Taxes

From the BBC:

A group of rich Germans has launched a petition asking that the government make them pay higher taxes. According to them, they have more money than they need, and the extra money could go to programs to speed Germany’s recovery from the downturn. They don’t want to donate the money, because they say that is not enough and that:

“The path out of the crisis must be paved with massive investment in ecology, education and social justice,” they say in the petition.

Those who had “made a fortune through inheritance, hard work, hard-working, successful entrepreneurship, or investment” should contribute by paying more to alleviate the crisis.

I’d attempt some kind of an economics analysis of this, but let’s be honest, economics isn’t what’s required here. They want to pay more taxes? They agree with Biden, thus they are clearly crazy.

The best part of the article?

The group held a demonstration in Berlin on Wednesday to draw attention to their plans, throwing fake banknotes into the air.

Mr Vollmer said it was “really strange that so few people came”.

Strange indeed.

More job creation talk

The Washington Post reports:

It won’t be called stimulus. And it won’t cost anything close to $787 billion. But, despite record budget deficits, House leaders plan to pour more cash into piecemeal measures aimed at creating jobs and maintaining a safety net for the unemployed in hopes of preventing a still-fragile economy from lapsing back into recession, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday.

This will be my third time quoting this, but here is Henry Hazlitt’s response to those who think government can create jobs:

For every public job created by a bridge project a private job has been destroyed somewhere else. We can see the men employed on the bridge. We can watch them at work…But there are other things that we do not see, because, alas, they have never been permitted to come into existence.

Happy Birthday, Tax Code

Today, October 22nd, is the 23rd anniversary of the enacting of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (signed into law by President Reagan). This act gave us the Internal Revenue Code (IRC) of 1986 – which is still used today. Though The Act was meant to simplify the tax code, today taxpayers are still beleaguered by a reprehensible system that disregards basic tenets of individual liberty and creates massive inefficiencies. Gerald Prante, senior economist of the Tax Foundation, had this to say on The Act’s 20th anniversary:

Why have politicians taken the stance that they would rather have tax deductions whose benefits are narrow rather than a broad-base, low-rate tax system that would benefit everyone and promote economic efficiency?

The simple answer is that special interests benefit heavily from narrow tax deductions and exemptions, even though the average taxpayer only benefits marginally. Therefore, while the overall benefits to society from overhauling the tax code would be significantly greater than the benefits of maintaining the status quo-the special deductions and complexity that permeate our tax system-special interests have a much greater incentive than the average American to lobby Congress on this issue.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Folly of Central Planning

The purpose of the Central Societies’ Committee (CSC) in Trinity College is to secure funding from the Capitation Committee, and then distribute this to societies around campus. Each year, members allocate tens of thousands of euro in funding to student societies around campus.

In a perfect world, all students would have an equal say in how college funding is allocated to societies. After all, this is your money and it is being allocated for your benefit. But a CSC composed of some 15,000 members is completely unworkable and would never reach consensus. Thus, we need a central authority to decide how to spend our money. Or do we?

Let’s ask ourselves. How does the CSC decide where to send this money? While ostensibly representative of the student body, CSC is composed of Students’ Union (SU) and society hacks who allocate funding according to their whim. Some societies, especially those favoured by certain CSC Officers, receive extremely generous grants. Others less favoured, received more meager grants. This is to be expected in a system which is neither transparent nor accountable.

Consider the following suggestion. Instead of centrally planning the distribution of funding for student societies, give each student the same amount of ‘CSC dollars’ (hereafter referred to as CSCs) in advance of Freshers’ Week.

Students then choose what societies they want to give their CSCs to. These CSCs are then redeemable for cash from college. If your society receives 1000 CSCs from its members, they can exchange this for €1000. If you can’t convince students to give you any CSCs, then you don’t get any funding from college.

What are the benefits of such a system? First off, it’s democratic. No more privileged elites in House 6 deciding where to allocate college funding. Instead, every student has an equal say. You control the same portion of funding as everyone else, because everyone gets the same number of CSC dollars at the start of the year.

It will also force student societies to provide a better service before taking your hard-earned cash, and foster competition. Societies have to convince you that you will get more out of giving them your CSCs, then if you gave it to any other society. Individual students have the power.

Critically, students also decide what constitutes a ‘better service’. In the past, this was just the opinion of some SU hack in Front Square. But who is best placed to decide what students want? Of course, the students themselves are. With CSC dollars, this becomes a reality. If societies aren’t offering what students want, they won’t get any money. If that means they can’t spend it on the things that students (by definition) aren’t interested in financing, that’s a very good thing.

But people are very gullible. Won’t they be tricked by false promises during Freshers’ Week? Won’t societies lie to you to get your CSCs? Firstly, that’s an existing problem under the status quo with membership fees, so it’s not caused by CSC dollars. Secondly, people are smart, and usually ask questions about the society’s track record before parting with their money. There’s no reason to think that the current CSC Executive is any smarter than the average student with CSC dollars.

Especially since, after the introduction of CSC dollars, more than three quarters of money given to societies during Freshers’ Week will be directly controlled by older students who have heard all the lies before. They will not be fooled by false promises, and they know what societies will really provide a good-value service in exchange for CSCs. Thus, the CSC dollar is smart money.

There’s also the problem with the current system created by membership charges. Right now, if you don’t pay extra money to become a member of (say) the Hist, you don’t get any benefit from the thousands of euro they receive from the university. But this money comes from you in the form of registration fees!

With the introduction of CSC dollars, everyone benefits from funding to college societies. How? If you don’t want to get involved with existing college societies and don’t want to pay for other people to have fun, simply offer to sell your CSCs to one of the bigger societies at a discount. You give them 10 CSCs, and they’ll pay you €9. Everybody benefits!

The Soviet Union tried to tell its citizens what they wanted, and failed. Communism and central planning are rightly regarded today as an abomination. Yet for some reason, we tolerate it right now in Trinity College through the Central Societies Committee (CSC).

Why should society oligarchs in House 6 decide how to allocate YOUR money? Why should you not be allowed to decide how to spend your money yourself? Abolish the Central Societies Committee (CSC). Let individual students allocate funding for societies, freely and democratically. Let the free market reign, and reap the rewards.

© The Free Marketeer 2009

Say says it all

I’ve been reading A Treatise on Political Economy by Jean-Baptiste Say.  In a discussion on money and the “unfixing” of its value from silver Say notes (63) that at first the practice was opposed by the Law, saying, “Law strenuously opposed the innovation…”.  He continues, however, “…but principle was compelled to give way to power; and the crimes of power, when the consequences began to be felt, were confidently attributed to the fallacy of the principle.”

How’s that for a one sentence summary of 21st century political economy?

on innovative government

I like this thought on “experts” who have new, innovative ideas for government policy:

The way I would put this is that tradition is usually the best guide. Clever innovations can improve on tradition, but they do so with much less frequency than intellectuals implicitly believe. Think of a new idea for social policy as if it were a new business–the chances are that it will fail. Yet the intellectual is disposed toward trying to implement this new idea. Unfortunately, when the state is the vehicle for implementing the idea, the failure is not isolated, as it is with a failed business start-up. Instead, it is a failure that is widespread and long-lasting.

And, I’d like to add, virtually impossible to repeal if it ends up being a bad idea. Exhibit A is ethanol subsidies, already universally condemned (except by big midwestern corn farmers) and likely to stay on the books for my lifetime.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Are China’s banks having a "good crisis"?

The crisis certainly hit China hard, but the spillover to banks has been minimal thus far.Photo courtesy of randylane under a Creative Commons license.

The story of the current financial crisis is well-known now and much has been written.  Indeed, we’re now at the point where many observers are indicating that the crisis is now at an end.  It would seem that the immediate financial sector impacts are leveling off, but in many countries the economic recovery will likely take a long time.  However, a number of emerging markets have come out of the crisis in relatively stable shape.  China is the most prominent example.  In fact, one might say that China is having a “good crisis” in certain ways as it has lifted its prominence – it is the one large country seen as leading the world out of this global crisis.  The same applies for China’s financial system given that many of its banks are now the largest in the world and (at least on the surface) posting strong performance. … READ MORE »

Source: http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/are-china-s-banks-having-a-good-crisis

"Government Sachs" - Where The Hell Is the Outrage???

Where The Hell Is The Outrage?

by Michael Shedlock

The number of articles and opinions on Goldman Sachs earnings, bonuses, and influence pedaling over the past several days is quite stunning.

Many have pointed out the problems; few have expressed outrage over what is happening in general, not just at Goldman Sachs. Let’s take a look.

My take is at the end.

Letting The Dice Roll

Rolfe Winkler at Contingent Capital is writing Letting Goldman Roll The Dice.

Is Goldman really such an indispensable financial intermediary? One look at the firm’s revenue breakdown shows that it’s more casino than anything else, and some of the markets it makes still put the economy in danger.

Goldman, in other words, generates most of its revenue trading its own money and earning vigorish on customer transactions. It’s a hybrid hedge fund and bookie, with an investment bank and asset management business thrown in for good measure.

With that in mind, one is left to wonder whether Goldman was really worth saving last year. What have taxpayers received for the $50 billion worth of cash and guarantees, for giving Goldman access to the Federal Reserve as its lender of last resort?

Saving Goldman was largely about saving the derivatives market, which is so big and unstable that the death of one counterparty could mean the death of all. With big commercial banks like JPMorgan Chase in deep, saving the derivatives business was as much about protecting depositors and maintaining the integrity of the payment system as it was derivatives themselves.

To Goldman’s credit, they’ve rebuilt their capital levels faster than anyone. Their leverage ratio has fallen from 35 to 16 in less than two years, despite pressure from equity analysts to juice returns by deploying “excess capital”. But at $50 billion, the bank’s mark-to-myth, or level 3, assets remain as high as its tangible common equity, the cushion it has to absorb losses.

Wall Street and its protectors at the Fed and Treasury tell us the bailout was necessary to protect the financial system, to protect Main Street. That may be. But Main Street still owns much of the risk while Wall Street gets all of the profit.

Geithner’s Appointment Book

The New York Times is taking A Look Inside Geithner’s Appointment Book

As Treasury secretary in the aftermath of last fall’s Wall Street meltdown, Timothy F. Geithner needs to keep in touch with the nation’s top bankers. But it seems that he connects with some financial chiefs much more often than others.

An analysis of Mr. Geithner’s calendars, which the Associated Press obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, shows that Mr. Geithner had contact with top executives at Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase more than 80 times during his first seven months at Treasury — while the heads of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley appeared on his calendars a total of just six times.

The Associated Press describes one spring evening when Mr. Geithner had a series of particularly high-powered calls:

After one hectic week in May in which the nation faced the looming bankruptcy of General Motors and the prospect that the government would take over the automaker, Mr. Geithner wrapped up his night with a series of phone calls.

First he called Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman and C.E.O. at Goldman. Then he called Jamie Dimon, the boss at JPMorgan. Obama called next, and as soon as they hung up, Mr. Geithner was back on the phone with Mr. Dimon.

Gee what might those calls have been about? Derivative bets on GM by any chance?

How Goldman Sachs Leveraged $70 Billion In Government Money

Jesse’s Café Américain is reporting How Goldman Sachs Leveraged $70 Billion In Government Money.

Guess which two Wall Street banks were acting as informal agents of the government in order to support the bond and stock markets and reinflate them?

Two big banks that are showing record trading profits, and a small group of enablers and assistants.

Exchange Stabilization Fund – wise, its a near layup when the US fronts you the money and then works with you to take the markets higher. Especially when it is on thin volumes based on ‘news’ which you help to create and control via frequent calls to young Tim who is your coordinator, in addition to all your other well-placed backchannel sources. You get a heads up, you use the futures to prop the markets. You need some good news, some can be arranged. Just like the good old days when Timmy was riding herd on the NY Fed desk.

All for the good of the country. And if you happen to make a billion per month in trading profits, well, that is the price of freedom for a job well done.

Max Keiser On Fraud

Robert Parsons: Is this froth and no substance or is there something to this?

Max Keiser: The word is not froth the word is fraud. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, are all engaged in accounting fraud. They are not realizing losses on trillions of dollars worth of bad debts on their books, giving themselves big bonuses this year, deferring losses to next year ….”

Part One

Part Two

The Goldman Tithe

Joe Peyronnin at The Huffington Post is writing Tithe Goldman Tithe

So Goldman Sachs is now concerned its company has a perception problem? They are even going to undertake a huge public relations offensive to turn things around? Well they sure have plenty of money to throw at this problem.

For sure, Goldman Sachs bankers work hard at creating value for their customers and shareholders. And their success should be rewarded. But a report that the firm had set aside about $20 billion for employee bonuses has caused a backlash. Critics say that Goldman Sachs is just back to its old money making ways.

Sadly Goldman Sachs doesn’t really care what Main Street thinks. Rather they are concerned what Congress or the U.S. Government might do.

The projected 2009 Goldman Sachs bonus pool will be around $20 billion, a near record amount. Therefore the average pay out per employee could be more than the $661,490 given in 2007. Memo to Goldman Sachs: most Americans don’t make that much in a lifetime of working.

This year Goldman Sachs should tithe. Take 10% right off the top of the bonus pool, or $2 billion, and donate it to rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and Alabama. Tap into their own brainpower to develop a plan to target the money on specific worthwhile projects so it does not get diverted to corrupt contractors and politicians. For starters, money could be used to rebuild the 9th ward of New Orleans, and devastated sections of Biloxi and Bay St. Louis, Mississippi.

Subsequently, Goldman Sachs should donate 10% of their bonus pool each year to a particular cause, helping injured and needy US military veterans, underwriting national after school programs designed to keep kids off the streets and out of trouble, curing diseases and the list goes on.

The US taxpayers supported the financial community when its collapse was imminent. Now it is time for financial institutions to help their country in its time of need.

Goldman’s Public Relations Bind

The New York Times says Bonuses Put Goldman in Public Relations Bind.

Goldman executives are perplexed by the resentment directed at their bank and contend the criticism is unjustified. But they find themselves in the uncomfortable position of defending Goldman’s blowout profits and the outsize paydays that are the hallmark of its success.

For Goldman employees, it is almost as if the financial crisis never happened. Only months after paying back billions of taxpayer dollars, Goldman Sachs is on pace to pay annual bonuses that will rival the record payouts that it made in 2007, at the height of the bubble. In the last nine months, the bank set aside about $16.7 billion for compensation — on track to pay each of its 31,700 employees close to $700,000 this year. Top producers are expecting multimillion-dollar paydays.

Goldman employees reaped rewards that most people can only dream about. Goldman paid out $4.82 billion in bonuses last year, awarding 953 employees at least $1 million each and 78 executives $5 million or more. The rewards for 2009 will be far greater.

Goldman executives know they have a public opinion problem, and they are trying to figure out what to do about it — as long as it does not involve actually cutting pay.

Another Goldman Executive Named To Key Government Post

Glenn Greewald writing for Salon notes Another Goldman executive named to key government post as its profits skyrocket.

Apparently, the U.S. government didn’t have enough Goldman Sachs executives in key financial and regulatory positions so Goldman Exec Named First COO of SEC Enforcement.
In October of last year, a Goldman Sachs Vice President, Neel Kashkari, was named by former Goldman CEO and then-Treasury Secretary Hank Pauslon to oversee the$700 billion TARP bailout. In January of this year, Tim Geithner hired a former Goldman Sachs lobbyist, Mark Patterson, to be his top aide and Chief of Staff. In March, President Obama nominated Goldman Sachs executive Gary Gensler to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures markets, even though (or “because”) Gensler confessed to lax regulation during the Clinton administration over the very derivative instruments that caused the financial crisis. In April, Goldman hired as its top lobbyist Michael Paese, the top aide to Rep. Barney Frank on the House Financial Services Committee which Frank chairs.

According to ABC News in October, 2008, Goldman “spent more than $43 million dollars on lobbying and campaign contributions to cultivate friends and buy influence in Washington, D.C. since 1989″ and their “bankers have been the country’s top political campaign contributors this year.” “They are almost in a class by themselves,” said Sheila Krumholz, the executive director for the Center for Responsive Politics. As Michael Moore has been pointing out, Goldman was the number one source of funding for the Obama 2008 presidential campaign. The bailout of AIG — which resulted in massive federal government monies to Goldman — was engineered at a meeting between Paulson, Geithner and Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein. Last year, Goldman paid top Obama economics adviser Larry Summers $135,000 for a one-day visit to Goldman.

That the administration continues, so brazenly, to place Goldman Sachs executives in the very government positions with the greatest power over the financial industry illustrates how little effort is devoted to hiding what is really taking place.

Adam Storch COO of the SEC
The Business Insider has posted an image and qualifications of Adam Storch, 29-Year-Old Goldman Guy Who Is Now COO Of The SEC.

Storch graduated from SUNY Buffalo. During college he did a stint as a summer intern at Neuberger Berman and worked at Deloitte & Touche for two years after graduating.

Storch then went to NYU’s Stern School of Business. This lead to a job at Goldman, where he worked for the last five years.

Derivatives Bill’s Loophole May Exempt Most Firms

Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission says Derivatives Bill’s Loophole May Exempt Most Firms.

Legislation by Representative Barney Frank to tighten derivatives regulation contains an exemption that may let most financial firms escape new collateral and disclosure rules, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

A plan offered by the Obama administration would subject all swaps dealers and “major market participants” to new regulations for capital, business conduct, record-keeping and reporting. Frank’s version would exempt corporations from that definition if they use derivatives for “risk management” purposes.

“It is clearly the weakest of all the proposals I’ve seen to date,” said Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California, in an interview before the hearing. Whalen, who has testified before Congress on derivatives regulation, is an independent bank analyst. “Frank’s committee seems to be intent on gutting any meaningful reform.”

The draft would ease trading and clearing requirements for derivatives dealers such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., compared with the administration’s proposal.

The Rich Have Stolen the Economy

Paul Craig Roberts, writing for CounterPunch says From Offshoring Jobs to Bailing Out Bankers The Rich Have Stolen the Economy.

Bloomberg reports that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s closest aides earned millions of dollars a year working for Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and other Wall Street firms. Bloomberg adds that none of these aides faced Senate confirmation. Yet, they are overseeing the handout of hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer funds to their former employers.

The gifts of billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money provided the banks with an abundance of low cost capital that has boosted the banks’ profits, while the taxpayers who provided the capital are increasingly unemployed and homeless.

Except for the banksters and the offshoring CEOs, there is no source of consumer demand to drive the US economy.

The political system is unresponsive to the American people. It is monopolized by a few powerful interest groups that control campaign contributions. Interest groups have exercised their power to monopolize the economy for the benefit of themselves, the American people be damned.

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.

Tenacious Goldman

Here is one more article, from July, courtesy of New York Magazine: Tenacious G

On the weekend of September 12, 2008, as the financial system shuddered and appeared to be on the verge of lurching to a halt, two Goldman Sachs men, former CEO Hank Paulson and current CEO Lloyd Blankfein, huddled with other banking heads at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to consider how to stave off disaster. Bear Stearns was dead. Merrill Lynch, run by another former Goldman man, John Thain, was in desperate need of a savior. And now Lehman Brothers was on the brink. As secretary of the Treasury, Paulson asked the banks to come up with a private-funding solution for Lehman before it imploded from lack of cash. But all the banks had been scrambling for cash reserves or strategic mergers to buffer against a rapid freeze in lending. No one was able, or willing, to help. And Paulson, a free-market purist, had made one thing clear up front: The government would not bail out the firm. Lehman Brothers, a longtime Goldman rival, prepared to declare bankruptcy, ending its 158-year run on Wall Street.

By Sunday night, Paulson realized he had an even bigger problem: the insurance giant AIG. AIG had sold billions in credit-default swaps to several major banks, what amounted to unregulated insurance on risky subprime-mortgage investments, the very ones that were bringing down the economy.

Hank Paulson and then–New York Fed chief Tim Geithner called an emergency meeting for the following Monday morning at the Federal Reserve Bank, ostensibly to discuss whether a private banking syndicate could be established to save AIG—one in which Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, two of the ailing insurance giant’s clients, would play prominent roles.

At the meeting, it was hard to discern where concerns over AIG’s collapse ended and concern for Goldman Sachs began: Among the 40 or so people in attendance, Goldman Sachs was on every side of the large conference table, with “triple” the number of representatives as other banks, says another person who was there. The entourage was led by the bank’s top brass: CEO Blankfein, co-chief operating officer Jon Winkelried, investment-banking head David Solomon, and its top merchant-banking executive Richard Friedman—all of whom had worked closely with Hank Paulson two years prior. By contrast, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon did not attend.

The Goldman domination of the meetings might not have raised eyebrows if a private solution had been forthcoming. But on Tuesday, Paulson reversed course and announced that the government would step in and save AIG, spending $85 billion in government money to buy a majority stake.

Of the $52 billion paid to AIG’s counterparties, Goldman Sachs was the biggest recipient: $13 billion, the entire balance of its claim. The amount was surprising: Banks like Merrill Lynch that had bought credit-default swaps from failed insurers other than AIG were paid 13 cents on the dollar in deals moderated by New York’s insurance regulator. Eric Dinallo, the former New York State insurance commissioner, who was at the AIG meetings, characterizes the decision this way: AIG’s counterparties, Goldman being the most prominent, “got to collect on an insurance policy without having the loss.”

Somehow not recognizing (or perhaps not caring about) the brewing backlash, Paulson continued to appoint Goldman Sachs alumni to positions of power after the AIG decision—he named Edward C. Forst, a former head of Goldman’s investment-management division, to help draft the $700 billion Toxic Asset Relief Program (of which $10 billion went to Goldman Sachs), and then Neel Kashkari, a former Goldman V.P., as the TARP manager. And of course Edward Liddy, former Goldman board member, was already serving as the new CEO of AIG. Suddenly, everywhere you looked, men who had passed through the Goldman gauntlet of loyalty and rewards were now in key positions overseeing the rescue of the financial system. The company was earning its nickname: “Government Sachs.”

Both Rogers and Paulson (who’s publishing a book this fall that will presumably attempt to justify his decisions and save his damaged legacy) have argued that the AIG decision was about saving the system as a whole, not Goldman in particular.

Similarly, they say, when it came to AIG, the firm was “prudent” in hedging its bets, buying credit-default swaps from Bank of America, JPMorgan, Société Générale and other banks in case AIG failed to pay the money it owed Goldman—in effect, hedging its hedge against the mortgage market. Goldman Sachs had no “material exposure” to AIG, they argue. One senior executive goes so far as to suggest the firm might even have benefited from AIG’s demise. “We might have done very well,” he says, “but I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to say that. Who knows?”

Not a single Wall Street executive I spoke with, including several Goldman Sachs alumni, believe those hedges would have survived an overall collapse of the financial system. A large loss would have been inevitable as lending evaporated, and Goldman Sachs would have struggled to shrink the company to a fraction of its size overnight. But the most glaring argument against Goldman is Goldman’s own: If AIG’s biggest and most important bank customer was hedged against losses in AIG, as it claims, why did the government need to pay Goldman Sachs the full $13 billion?

Lost in the haze of Goldman’s recent record profits is the fact that the firm nearly went under even after the AIG bailout last fall. As the market continued to plunge and Goldman’s stock price nose-dived, people inside the firm “were freaking out,” says a former Goldman executive who maintains close ties to the company.

Salvation came on November 25, a few days after Goldman’s stock price plunged to $52 a share, down from the year’s high of $200 and the lowest price the company had seen since it went public. Again, the white knight was the government. It turned out that Goldman’s conversion to a garden-variety bank-holding company offered an amazing advantage: Goldman now had access to incredibly cheap money. Exploiting its new status, Goldman became the first financial institution to sell $5 billion in government-backed bonds through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which allowed Goldman to start doing deals when the markets were at a near standstill.

Those FDIC notes they got were lifesaving because they couldn’t issue any debt. If it had gone on another week or two, Goldman would have failed, they would have gone the way of Lehman, and you’d be talking about Lloyd the way you talk about [Lehman CEO] Dick Fuld.”

Even Goldman alumni were struck by the company’s shameless posture in ramping up the leverage again so soon after the government bailouts. “It’s a statement of arrogance,” says one former executive.

Goldman claims that there is a Chinese Wall between the advisory business and the trading business. “There are rules and laws regarding information sharing, and we scrupulously follow them,” says a company spokesman.

But two former clients told me they had observed firsthand how Goldman traded against their interests to improve its own bottom line—one who didn’t like it, the other accepting it with a shrug and saying, admiringly, that Goldman’s ability to convince the world that it is a “client-oriented” business was its most masterful PR coup.

Goldman’s profiting from this ethical gray area was exemplified by the real-estate market and the subprime-mortgage collapse: Goldman Sachs sold subprime-mortgage investments to its clients for years, but then in 2006 began trading against subprime on its own balance sheet without informing its clients, a hedge that ultimately let it profit when the real-estate market cratered. For some, this was a prescient call; for others, a glaring conflict of interest and inherently dishonest, since the firm let its clients take the fall.

Earlier this month, Goldman had an ex-employee arrested for allegedly stealing computer codes that could be used, as the prosecutor noted, “to manipulate markets in unfair ways.” Some hedge-fund traders and financial bloggers have speculated that Goldman itself could have been using the codes for the same purpose.

Now attention is turning to Goldman’s dominance of trading on the New York Stock Exchange—as the exchange’s biggest high-speed program trader as well as a provider of liquidity to other traders—and whether that ubiquity has afforded the firm undue advantage. If Goldman’s database knows nearly every trade that is about to be made, sophisticated computer codes could, theoretically, instantly execute fail-safe trades on Goldman’s behalf milliseconds beforehand. This, some are insisting, is where the company is manipulating the markets and making hundreds of millions of dollars a day.

The New York Magazine article is 8 pages long and well worth a read in entirety.

My Take

As long as the playing field is level, corporations are entitled to make what they can and do with the profits what they want, and that includes granting whatever bonuses a corporation wants.

Let’s see how level the playing field was and still is.

AIG

Goldman Sachs makes the case that it was hedged so it deserved not to lose anything. However, as the New York magazine points out, the odds are high that those hedges were worthless because of the sheer amount of leverage and counterparty risk. Yet, Goldman received $13 billion, the entire balance of its claim on AIG while “Banks like Merrill Lynch that bought credit-default swaps from failed insurers other than AIG were paid 13 cents on the dollar.“

Every financial institution involved should return every cent of that money because they all would have failed without government (taxpayer) handouts.

GM

It is incredibly peculiar that in “one hectic week in May in which the nation faced the looming bankruptcy of General Motors and the prospect that the government would take over the automaker, Mr. Geithner wrapped up his night with a series of phone calls” to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

I suspect those calls were in regards to concerns over the derivative books of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. It is no secret that more credit default swaps were bet on GM than there were underlying bonds.

Of course, the realm of possibilities says those calls may have been to arrange last-minute details for a group fly fishing trip to Paulson’s private island off the coat of Georgia. However, the realm of probabilities is much narrower.

Is it too much to ask the precise nature of those calls? I suppose it is.

The SEC Appointment

Is Storch really the most qualified candidate? Will a Goldman appointee overlook or squelch investigation into the practices at Goldman in favor of investigating Aunt Martha or some firms that Goldman just might want to step on?

Regardless, It sure does not hurt when you have someone at the SEC who will turn a blind eye to anything Goldman might have done wrong or is still doing wrong or alleged to be doing wrong.

There are a lot of allegations against Goldman about front running trades, naked shorting, high-speed program trading, and the sheer volume of program trading at Goldman Sachs. What are the odds any of this gets investigated, or that if is investigated any wrong-doing will be found?

Derivatives Legislation

Think any derivatives legislation will be passed that is not specifically beneficial to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan? Think again.

Influence Pedaling

All hail “Government Sachs” the king of kings and master of the universe of influence pedaling. Salon.Com details position after position of ex-Goldman Sachs employees in positions of influence.

Yes, there is some public anger about Goldman Sachs. Sadly, much of it is misdirected towards the bonuses. The real outrage should be over the favoritism, influence pedaling, and business as usual environment in which Goldman Sachs can do what it wants, when it wants, while in a position to know in advance (and potentially trade off that knowledge) of what the government is about to do.

Where’s The Outrage?

I don’t know about you, but I am outraged.

I am outraged and not just about Goldman Sachs, but about a process that allows, even encourages political pandering, by time and time again rewarding leveraged riverboat gamblers and failed institutions and at taxpayer expense.

I am outraged that real people are suffering massively while the influence peddlers have stolen the country for their own personal benefit.

I am outraged at a political system that is totally unresponsive to the American people.

I am outraged by campaign contribution and lobbying processes that allows corporations to buy votes with donations.

I am outraged how legislators ignored the wishes of the people who clearly did not want these bailouts in the first place.

I am outraged that very little of this is in mainstream media. Why is this stuff not on the frontpage of every newspaper in the country or at least in the editorial pages?

I am outraged that the average US citizen is not aware of any of this, instead depending on CNBC, or “The View” for their interpretation of the world.

I am outraged how special interest groups have exercised their power to monopolize the economy for the benefit of themselves, US citizens be damned.

I am outraged that all these bailout programs are doing nothing to alleviate the massive consumer debt problems. Every program, virtually every program was designed to bailout lending institutions, not consumers.

I am outraged at fees charged by banks receiving bailouts.

I am outraged over government pension plans and government pay scales massively out of line with the private sector.

I am outraged that Congress and this administration thinks the solution to massive budget deficits are still higher budget deficits in excess of a trillion dollars.

I am outraged about indictments. Paulson Admitted Coercion to force a shotgun wedding between Bank of America and Merrill Lynch yet no indictments were handed out. Let the Criminal Indictments Begin: Paulson, Bernanke, Lewis.

I am outraged that US citizens are not concerned enough and not educated enough to demand change.

I am outraged that the two party system has failed. Neither party has delivered meaningful change on budgets, on taxes, on social security, on deficit spending, on the size of government, on military spending, or fighting needless wars.

I am outraged that the Obama Administration promised changed and did not deliver. “Yes We Can” was a lie. The reality is “It’s Business As Usual, Only Worse, With Higher Deficits”.

I am outraged there is not enough outrage over this.

Where the hell is the outrage?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Except Republicans Are Not Tories

David Brooks, in the New York Times:

…Britain has hit its reality moment. The Brits are ahead of us when it comes to public indebtedness and national irresponsibility. Spending has been out of control for longer and in a more sustained way.

But in that country, the climate of opinion has turned. There, voters are ready for a politician willing to face reality. And George Osborne, who would become the chancellor of the Exchequer in the likely event that his Conservative Party wins the next election, has aggressively seized the moment…

…In the U.S., the economic crisis has caused many to question capitalism. But Britain has discredited the center-left agenda with its unrelenting public spending, its public development agencies and disappointing public-private investment partnerships.

Osborne and David Cameron, the party leader, argue that Labour’s decision to centralize power has undermined personal and social responsibility. They are offering a responsibility agenda from top to bottom. Decentralize power so local elected bodies have responsibility. Structure social support to encourage responsible behavior and responsible spending.

If any Republican is looking for a way forward, start by doing what they’re doing across the Atlantic.

Unfortunately, any observation based upon equating American Republicans with British Conservatives in ideological terms has for several decades been weak at best.  And, in this case, so is the timing.

To begin with, British Conservatives are less frightened of public services, which are perhaps in Britain epitomized (as is constant news currently in the U.S.) by the extremely popular National Health Service.  In that, they are in synch with the public, which doesn’t want the NHS underfunded.  Rather Britons want their taxes spent more wisely than Labour has done, with its plethora of wasteful, questionable (often at best) initiatives.

Which is a major reason why the Labour party leader is now much like the George W. Bush of Britain.  The public has long since tuned out Gordon Brown.  If President’s Bush’s popularity drop had begun with Katrina, Mr Brown’s began when, as a reasonably popular newly appointed successor to Tony Blair, Mr Brown made what is always a fatal political mistake: he vacillated.  Apparently desiring an absolutely guaranteed sure victory, during autumn 2007 he failed to call an early general election — despite the fact that a victory would have made him “his own man.”

Instead, the public was subjected to weeks of media speculation as to “Will he, or won’t he?”  When, in the end, he didn’t, from that point on he has been viewed as an “unelected” prime minister and immediately began his plunge in opinion polls.

Ever since, the public has also been treated to repeated promises, every so many months, of the latest “fightback“.  Mr Brown has always been about to reassert himself and wrest the policy initiative away from the opposition Conservatives.  That when what the public really has wanted all along was not another raft of “plans,” but instead to have a chance to render a verdict on him at the polls.

Thus he faces what is near certain defeat by June 2010.  By then time will have run out: he must by then ask the Queen to dissolve parliament, by law, and call the election that should probably have been held in 2007.  Matters are now so bad in a public opinion sense that Mr Brown could likely take to the GMTV sofa, sit across from Andrew Castle and Emma Crosby and announce how he had just discovered the cure for cancer . . . and the public would likely respond with a collective, indifferent, disbelieving shrug.

To say nothing of the Daily Mail probably immediately headlining, Has Brown found a new way to tax Britain’s families for even longer?

On more familiar U.S. ground, Mr Brooks forgets that American Republicans have just been badly trounced in a presidential election and control neither house of Congress.  Even worse, they lack a credible “leader of the opposition” to step into the vacuum created by those defeats.  The likes of Sen Mitch McConnell are never going to win over many independents and conservative Democrats to the Republican column.

In short, by in the spring Labour will face its own version of Republicans’ November 2006 and November 2008.  Which were effectively American Republicans’ versions of British Conservatives’ May 1997.  As was the case with British Conservatives following their 1997 defeat (during which span they lost two further general elections decisively in 2001 and 2005), Republicans seem likely also to take some time to recover electorally.

Because “the Republican brand” is damaged.  Thus the notion bouncing around among Republicans that President Obama is “bound” to be a one-term president is based, at this point, on nothing but wishful thinking.  Another Jimmy Carter they may fervently hope him to be, but to become another one a credible alternative to him must emerge.

Aside from perhaps Mitt Romney, who has experience, depth, and charisma, and, most importantly — and like David Cameron — does not come across as a “cold conservative”, there is, as of now, no one approaching a “Ronald Reagan” waiting in Republican wings.  Yet while the country has already chosen the son of a Muslim as president, too many Republicans are evidently still fixating on Gov Romney’s Mormonism — a Mormonism that is, ironically, itself a very American faith.  Such an attitude hardly bodes well when it comes to Republicans’ reaching out to “rebuild the brand.”

Friday, October 16, 2009

Because the FDA, Pharmaceutical Companies and Corporate Persons only have our best interests in mind.

The Spectre Haunting GE a Business Week Article

Many MRI patients are injected with a GE dye to enhance images. If they have weak kidneys, they might develop a rare and sometimes fatal disease

snip:

The U.S. Food & Drug Administration has required since May 2007 that makers of contrast agents use a stern “black box” warning cautioning physicians to weigh carefully the benefits and risks for patients with weak kidneys. Screening out people with kidney problems appears to eliminate the danger of NSF. But the FDA has not said GE’s product is any more problematic than those of its competitors. The agency reached that conclusion even after two of its staff doctors—in findings disclosed here for the first time—determined that Omniscan is riskier than its rivals. GE had urged the FDA to treat all of the agents as equally risky.

Now one of the nation’s leading imaging-safety experts, Dr. Emanuel Kanal, a professor at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says that the FDA’s decision to lump all contrast agents together is “inappropriate and indefensible.” Kanal warns that the government’s position potentially “endangers American citizens.” The FDA, while defending its stance, says it will meet with Kanal to look at fresh data. (Kanal isn’t working for any of the parties in the lawsuits.)

/snip

There are “skeptics” about  who feel that suspicion of governmental agencies (in this case the FDA)  and “Big Pharma” come under the “tinfoil hat” category, who have asked me in all seriousness: “Why would a drug company do anything that would cause it to lose patients?

Ummmm…. how about:

  • “Money money money money…MONEY!”
  • The upside of a bad economy?

    Let’s hear it for a bad economy!

    Evidently, the tight economy has meant fewer jobs for teens, which obviously leaves more of them with empty wallets and at the mercy of the worst of all fates: Mom and Dad.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that even stores that specialize in clothes for younger consumers are following the money to its source. Aeropostale’s employee handbook states:

    Because parents make the final decision, they want to feel valued, and they want to feel good about what they purchase.”

    Retailers have had decades to care less what morals or values a family might be trying to instill in their children.  But even retailers bow to the almighty dollar and in their desire to destroy all things virtuous, they have actually had to slow the destructive slide down.   Read more here. 

    More Government Payouts – The President Looks to Buy Votes

    The government payouts just keep on coming.  Yesterday President Obama announced that he will ask Congress to provide $250 payments in 2010 to 57 million Americans including seniors, veterans and people with disabilities.  These latest payouts will cost us a mere $13 billion.

    Why is the President suggesting the additional payout?  Because with the low inflation rate there will be no cost-of-living increase for Social Security recipients in 2010.  But, that’s exactly the way it’s supposed to work.  There is no need for an increase in 2010 because there is no inflation to lower the buying power of Social Security’s monthly payments.  That’s not good for President Obama.  Change the rules in midstream and never pass up an excuse to throw taxpayer money around.  According to the President:

    “These payments will provide aid to more than 50 million people in the coming year, relief that will not only make a difference for them, but for our economy as a whole, complementing the tax cuts we’ve provided working families and small businesses through the Recovery Act When the administration was asked in a briefing how they would pay for the latest handout, they did not have an answer.”

    There are so many problems with this latest (and ongoing) government payout to list in a short Blog.  A few of key problems should suffice:

    • The government is making one payout after another, yet the unemployment rate continues to increase.  Isn’t it time for a new strategy?
    • Social Security recipients get the benefit of a cost-of-living increase when inflation hurts their buying power.  Why should they get an increase when there is no inflation?  Why do these recipients deserve a government kickback over other Americans?
    • The country is running $1 trillion plus deficits.  We are no longer spending our own money on the handouts and entitlement programs.  What gives us this right to spend future generations’ assets?
    • By going from one handout to the next the government is creating an atmosphere where people, companies and organizations wait for a government bailout rather than seeking long-term solutions to their individual challenges.  This will only perpetuate the economic downturn.

    It is easy for politicians to spend other people’s money.  While some may have good intentions, there are more insidious plans at work.  Politicians realize that handouts buy them votes.  It is not coincidence that President Obama makes this latest handout offer to mainly older citizens.  He needs their support for to pass his expensive healthcare reform program.

    There is no such thing as a free lunch.  Sooner or later the massive deficits we are running will challenge our country’s economy even more than the current downturn.  And then we will have no funds for that rainy day.

    Wednesday, October 14, 2009

    A New Prospective World

    I have fallen through the Rabbit Hole into the Land of the Prospective.

    Congress has “graduated from the place here they read and debated actual bills, to where they voted for a 1017 page bill they never read, to now today when they will vote in the Senate Finance Bill that has not yet been written.

    The Nobel Peace Prize Committee voted a Peace Prize for a President based on his intentions, none of which have come to fruition or even moved slowly in his intended direction.

    Rush Limbaugh is accused of saying things he says he has not said, his accusers cannot find the citations they accuse him of saying, and, apparently they will hold him responsible for the comments because, even though he may not have said them he certainly could have thought them.

    We have a White House that complains that fox News is adversarial. In my youth ALL media was adversarial to political people of all stripes — then we went through a period where the press knew things about which they would not report — such as the multiple Kennedy dalliances — and have morphed into a general rooting session for the administration…leaving only Fox News to be adversarial. Strange.

    This new Prospective World is a bit of a problem for those of us who deal in what used to be called “reality.” This new world in which intentions count more than accomplishments, where rules are written in the air, where we believe we can divine the hearts of men based on words they did not say, is a puzzlement for some of us.

    A Wealthy Trust Fund

    A blessing as the conversation continued: A minister was talking with a skilled professional printer, recently a victim of this countries’ “recession/Greed of Destruction” by his job-loss. Sorrow and such unfair practices, yet impossible to stop was in length, discussed. Fifteen million American Workers unable to work and the 6 for 1 job ratio was a comment and sympathy was exchanged.

    This fine man, in the prime of his profession, (20) years of hard work and another 10-15 years needed due to family responsibility, shook his head. Yet! He stood straight and strong and while looking directly into this minister’s eyes said,” With everything going on, I am lucky because I am blessed with a trust fund.” With a lean toward the preacher and a soft voice he continued, “I have and always will trust in my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.” The Lord is our only Trust and our only Wealth.”

    With tears in eyes; both, the minister softly replied, “Amen.”

    Blessed Paul the Apostle to the Corinthians, 1:4-5. “I thank my God always on your behalf, for the grace of God which is given you by Jesus Christ; That in every thing ye are enriched by him, in all utterance, and in all knowledge;”

    My dear-dear Father said to me when I was a young man, “Son, always-always trust in the Lord.” Tears again…and again, Amen.

    Ekonomi : Rupiah Bikin Resah, Daya Saing Perlu Ditingkatkan

    Rupiah Bikin Resah Daya Saing Perlu Ditingkatkan

    Rabu, 14 Oktober 2009 | 03:55 WIB

    Jakarta, Kompas – Penguatan rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat sangat dilematik. Bagi importir, penguatan ini menguntungkan. Bagi produsen berorientasi ekspor, penguatan ini justru mencemaskan karena daya saing industri rendah.

    Hal itu dikemukakan Ketua Umum Asosiasi Industri Mebel dan Kerajinan Indonesia Ambar Polah Tjahyono di sela-sela finalisasi penyusunan Roadmap 2015 dan Visi Industri 2030 di Jakarta, Selasa (13/10).

    Ambar mengatakan, penguatan rupiah berpotensi menggerakkan importir untuk mengimpor produk yang sesungguhnya sudah diproduksi di dalam negeri. Ini berpotensi menghancurkan industri domestik.

    ”Padahal, industri kita masih rendah daya saingnya. Produk impor yang lebih murah cepat atau lambat akan menghancurkan industri domestik,” ujarnya.

    Di lain sisi, pemerintah mendorong industri untuk meningkatkan ekspor. Pada masa kontrak ekspor, produsen biasanya masih mematok kurs Rp 12.000 per dollar AS. Dengan penguatan rupiah saat ini, nilai produk ekspor Indonesia akan berkurang.

    ”Produsen resah karena dollar AS yang diterimanya ketika harus ditukar kembali dengan rupiah untuk membayar gaji buruh nilainya menjadi berkurang. Diharapkan pemerintah menjaga kestabilan kurs Rp 10.500 per dollar AS,” kata Ambar.

    Deputi Gubernur Bank Indonesia Hartadi A Sarwono mengatakan, rata-rata nilai tukar masih cukup kompetitif sehingga tidak mengganggu fundamental sektor ekspor-impor.

    Pembayaran

    Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Pelaksana Jabatan Menko Perekonomian Sri Mulyani Indrawati mengatakan, penguatan rupiah memengaruhi beban pembayaran kewajiban yang harus ditanggung pemerintah pada 2009. Selain itu juga berdampak pada komposisi akhir APBN 2010 dalam lima bulan ke depan.

    ”Kami akan melihat penerimaan negara, terutama pajak, kemudian dari sisi belanja serta dari sisi perubahan indikator, seperti suku bunga dan nilai tukar. Sekarang rupiah relatif lebih kuat. Dalam lima bulan ke depan, akan sangat memengaruhi kewajiban- kewajiban dalam mata uang asing,” ungkap Menkeu.

    Koordinator Koalisi Anti Utang Dedi Setiawan mengatakan, rendahnya pencairan pinjaman terjadi karena buruknya perencanaan dan kinerja proyek yang didanai utang luar negeri. Itu menyebabkan bertambahnya beban anggaran untuk pembayaran pokok dan bunga pinjamannya.

    ”Fakta ini harus jadi landasan bagi DPR untuk memperketat pinjaman baru, khususnya mencegah peningkatan defisit APBN sebagai legitimasi pembuatan utang baru,” katanya.

    Dalam transaksi valas di BI kemarin, kurs tengah di posisi Rp 9.445 per dollar AS, menguat dibandingkan sehari sebelumnya yang Rp 9.490 per dollar AS.(OSA/FAJ/OIN)

    Monday, October 12, 2009

    Ostrom, Williamson, and Sociology

    I don’t know if people are realizing it yet, but the awarding of this year’s Nobel Prize Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economics in Memorial of Alfred Nobel to Ostrom and Williamson is the best thing that could happen to sociology outside of Granovetter taking home the prize. As Gore, Krugman, and Obama’s recent prizes indicate, the Nobel committee has a habit of making awards based on current events. Given the current economic problems facing the world, I was sure that it would go to someone who does macro or financial economics. That would have been fine and dandy for Mitchel Abolafia or the folks over at the Socializing Finance blog, but the applications to sociology in general would be extremely limited. Instead, the vindication of the New Institutional Economics (NIE) School) gives sociologists a chance to get in on the action.

    Williamson’s work on the firm follows that of his teacher (and previous Nobel Laureate) Ronald Coase. Before these guys, the firm was basically the black hole of economics. For starters, no one could explain why they existed in the first place if markets are sooo efficient. Secondly, after just “assuming” them into existence, they were treated as magically devices where inputs went in and outputs came out. This is what the neoclassical firm looks like. Economists couldn’t explain the simply idea of what firms do. Williamson argued sometimes market transaction costs were too high and it was more efficient to use firms were an authority could avoid haggling and holdouts. Another important concept was asset specificity where sometimes there’s just not a market for every product or services, so it’s easier to do it in-house. Steel can sell easily on the open market while steel frames for Honda Accords don’t have much use except for making Honda Accords. 

    Ostrom’s work is even cooler (and more sociological) in my opinion. Elinor (along with her husband) is the founder of what is called the Bloomington School of political economy. Prior to their work, economists responded in two ways to the tragedy of the commons. You could either privatize that resources or use a whole lot of top-down government regulation. Ostrom challenged both views and found a third meso-level solution. Using ethnographic case studies (!), she found that complex rules often arose among small groups to regulate use and upkeep of the commons.

    You can read more about their work here. The important point is that both individuals take institutional settings into account. Although Granovetter critiqued Williamson in his most famous article, the basic idea is there. What blows my mind even more is the fact that Ostrom relies heavily on ethnographic work and still took home the prize. It’s good news all around!

    • Josh McCabe

    <i>That</i> issue again

    [This is cross-posted on Freethink, where there have been many posts on the subject. ]

    When to start cutting the deficit? or “the sequencing of fiscal strategies”, as Adam Posen might have put it.  Last week the Tories took what they happily described as a gamble in laying out in (misleading) depth how they would cut the deficit.  Some of it sounded nasty, and for that reason might deserve applause (which I gave, grudgingly). The Economist has been more fulsome.

    The temptation was to continue to spout generalities rather than specify cuts, for fear of scaring the voters. Instead [Osborne] spelt out some of the harsh medicine needed to deal with the huge budget deficit . . . He shirked neither the scale of the problem nor the harsh measures required to solve it. Most public-sector pay would be frozen in 2011, various middle-class breaks would go, rich people’s taxes would rise and everyone would have to wait a year longer before getting their state pension

    Sure, really tough decisions have to be faced at some point in the next 5 years.  But when? Are the Conservatives – doctrinaire and dangerous to quote Kettle – so determined to start on Day One that they might scupper the economy in the process? What if they are possessed of a faulty economic ideology, one that fetishizes 1981, and thinks that any amount of fiscal cutting can make no difference?  See Osborne, September:

    Ben Broadbent, Chief UK Economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote recently that fiscal tightening in an open economy “has little appreciable impact on aggregate output” because it tends to rebalance demand away from non-traded goods and services and towards the traded sector.

    And David Smith:

    The second implicit assumption that should be challenged is that pruning public spending and government borrowing will inevitably create a hole in demand that needs to be counter-balanced by a laxer monetary policy. There is evidence  that Type 1 packages – which do not raise taxes, do not cut government investment but do rein in government consumption and welfare payments to the population of working age – are followed by an officially unanticipated burst of output growth

    Are they right? Do we need have no fear for getting the timing wrong? No, they are wrong.  Whatever international case studies Smith is using, they do not/cannot include conditions like THESE.  Because unless they are all about 1929-39 economies, they cannot include conditions like these: collapsed banking, overwhelming balance sheet issues, deflation.  And Ben Broadbent’s model relies on a falling currency, economic demand from overseas, and monetary laxity.   How can that happen now?

    The very best discussion of this so far is from Chris Giles, today:

    Economic theory and history are not nearly as clear as Mr Osborne. In the standard macro-economic model , a fiscal consolidation should reduce national income, but some of that reduction would be offset by a lower exchange rate and lower market interest rates . . .It is hard, however, to know how much further monetary policy can be eased . . .  The level of quantitative easing is already high, and David Cameron, Conservative leader, is against any more. ” Printing money leads to inflation, ” he says.

    And, as Duncan has blogged, Cameron’s words on QE ending are already alarming people.

    Instead, we need a credible plan – but flexibility about the timing.

    It is amazing how far apart are views on this. On the one hand you have Dillow (the deficit will take care of itself). On the other, Worstall thinking the multiplier is zero.    In the Economist, they report a US advert:

    A classroom full of children stand as if to recite the pledge of allegiance, but the words are different: “I pledge allegiance to America’s debt, and to the Chinese government that lends us money, and to the interest, for which we pay, compoundable, with higher taxes and lower pay, until the day we die.”

    I don’t take a dogmatic view.  What distresses me is the inability in some influential quarters to actually look at the facts on the ground, rather than the political-base-pleasing policy prescriptions that you hope will work for all seasons.   In 1981, cutting the deficit helped: real borrowing rates were 8% and there’s not many investments that make sense at that level.  We needed to win the credibility.  Now we have the credibility.  We’re charged 1% and there is no other source of demand right now.  (QE is not providing demand, it’s providing liquidity, selectively.) Is this hard?  What am I missing?

    The Tories were more honest than Brown who ignored the elephant in the room entirely. If he is such an experienced macroeconomist, he ought to be better able to explain these issues.  But by fixating on 1981-era approaches, they risk making a worse mistake.

    Kenegaraan : Peta Jalan Kemajuan China

    http://www.analisad aily.com/ index.php? option=com_ content&view=article&id=31325:melihat- sekilas-peta- jalan-kemajuan- china-&catid=78:umum&Itemid=131

    Melihat Sekilas Peta Jalan Kemajuan China Oleh : Hidayat Banjar

    Setiap pagi anak saya yang masih kelas 5 SD membawa tas besar, isinya buku-buku pelajaran. Sesekali saya mencandainya: “Vanni (nama anak saya itu) dengan beban berat seperti ini, dapat dipastikan kelak kau akan bungkuk, sementara belum dapat dipastikan kau akan cerdas.”

    “Buku-buku ini harus dibawa, Ayah. Semuanya dipelajari di sekolah,” jawabnya. Saya prihatin melihat anak saya itu, yang juga dialami anak-anak Indonesia lain.

    Padahal, yang diharapkan orangtua ketika anaknya tamat SD sederhana saja: bisa membaca, menulis dan berhitung. Ya, tambahannya adalah budi pekerti. Lalu untuk apa pelajaran sebanyak itu?

    Yang jadi pertanyaan, apakah layak siswa SD mata pelajarannya berjumlah 11 hingga 13. Bahkan ada beberapa sekolah menerapkan 15 mata pelajaran untuk siswa SD?

    Di SMA sederajat juga begitu. Siswa “dipaksa” menguasai 13 – 20 mata pelajaran. Betapa beratnya beban siswa-siswi kita? Apakah pihak yang berwenang menangani pendidikan menganggap anak-anak Indonesia supermen atau superwomen?

    Ilustrasi dan pertanyaan-pertanya an di atas saya ajukan sehubungan dengan kemajuan China yang salah satunya adalah mereformasi dunia pendidikan. Melihat kemajuan China (dengan jumlah penduduk 1,3 miliar) demikian signifikan sejak 1980-an, kita perlu belajar, hal-hal apa yang melatarbelakanginya .

    Rata-rata 10 Persen

    Kemajuan ekonomi China rata-rata tumbuh 10 persen sejak 1980-an. China menjadi super power baru yang secara geopolitik berpotensi menjadi “ancaman” negara-negara industri maju.

    Jika ada pendapat mengatakan bahwa Indonesia tidak punya kekuatan sama sekali, itu berlebihan. Kita bukanlah bangsa yang bodoh dan malas.

    Bukti terakhir, seperti peran Indonesia di G-20, menunjukkan kita sudah punya “sesuatu” yang bisa dipelihara dan didayagunakan di kemudian hari. Namun, pendapat bahwa China lebih maju dari Indonesia memang tidak terbantahkan. Justru itu, kemajuan China bisa dijadikan pelajaran berharga guna memacu kemajuan Indonesia.

    Ada tiga hal mendasar dan penting yang ditanamkan dan diterapkan China hingga mencapai kemajuan seperti sekarang. Pertama soal kepercayaan diri, kedua prioritas pendidikan, dan ketiga peta jalan ke depan. Ketiga hal mendasar ini secara konsisten dan simultan terus diimplementasikan China dalam kehidupan berbangsa dan bernegara.

    Kepercayaan diri adalah satu sifat yang dibangun dan dikembangkan Mao Zedong sejak awal 1930-an hingga 1970-an. Percaya diri itu dibangun sebagai jawaban atas “penghinaan seratus tahun” (bainian guochi) sebelumnya oleh bangsa-bangsa Barat dan Jepang sejak Perang Candu 1840-1949.

    Dasar pendidikan, dijalankan para pemimpin China sejak Mao. Menurut Gang Guo (2007), selama Revolusi Kebudayaan, jumlah siswa masuk sekolah dasar meningkat separuh, sekolah menengah pertama naik empat kali lipat, dan sekolah menengah meningkat 14 kali lipat. Memang ada perdebatan terkait kualitas pendidikan. Namun Mao memberi dasar distribusi yang lebih merata sumber daya manusia.

    Pendidikan Karakter

    Deng Zioping pada 1978 mengatakan, “Bila China ingin memodernisasi pertanian, industri, dan pertahanan, yang harus dimodernisasi lebih dulu adalah sains dan teknologi serta menjadikannya kekuatan produktif.” Pada 1985, Deng menegaskan pentingnya pendidikan karakter, dan orientasi hapalan dianggap “membunuh” karakter anak. Setelah itu, guru dan kaum profesional amat dihargai.

    Presiden Jiang Zemin pada 2000 mengumpulkan semua pemimpin China untuk membahas bagaimana mengurangi beban pelajaran siswa melalui adopsi sistem pendidikan yang patut secara umur dan menyenangkan, serta mengembangkan semua aspek dimensi manusia, kognitif, karakter, estetika, dan fisik.

    Dibandingkan dengan bangsa kita, kepercayaan diri bangsa China lebih kuat karena dasar yang dibangun Mao dan capaian-capaian kasatmata, seperti olimpiade dan kemajuan ekonominya.

    Namun, pelan tapi pasti, bangsa Indonesia sebenarnya mulai percaya diri. Keberhasilan mempraktikkan demokrasi dan kemajuan ekonomi setelah krisis akhir 1990-an mulai menjadikan kita dihargai negara-negara lain. Buktinya, dalam GDP, Indonesia berada di nomor 16 dan menjadi anggota G-20 yang mulai disegani anggota lain. Momentum untuk kepercayaan diri ini perlu dijaga, dipelihara dan diapresiasi.

    Kendati terlambat, bangsa kita telah mengakui pentingnya pendidikan sebagai fundamen bangunan bangsa. Hal itu terbukti dengan anggaran 20 persen untuk pendidikan. Kendati implementasinya belum sempurna dan konsepnya belum kuat sehingga terkesan sibuk menghabiskan anggaran, keputusan politik bangsa bahwa pendidikan harus diprioritaskan sudah berada di jalur yang benar.

    Mau Berubah

    Masalahnya, apakah kita mau berubah? Sedangkan alam saja terus berubah seusai perjalanan waktu.

    Yang jadi pertanyaan, apakah layak siswa SD mata pelajarannya berjumlah 11 hingga 13, bahkan ada beberapa sekolah menerapkan 15 mata pelajaran untuk siswa SD? Yang menjadi pertanyaan lagi, apakah efektif dan efisien siswa SMA sederajat mata pelajarannya 13 – 20?

    Jika mau berubah, tak mustahil dalam waktu 20 tahun ke depan, kita akan membuktikan bangsa ini lebih kuat bersaing di antara bangsa-bangsa lain. Konsep pembangunan pendidikan harus lebih mendasar dan terarah sehingga alokasi dana 20 persen bisa dimanfaatkan secara efektif dan efisien.

    Pada 2005, Pusat Penelitian Modernisasi China menerbitkan peta jalan Modernisasi China untuk abad ke-21. Isinya: tahun 2025 produk domestik bruto (GDP) China menyamai Jepang. Tahun 2050 China jadi negara maju secara moderen. Tahun 2080 China menjadi negara maju, sama dengan AS. Tahun 2100 China menjadi negara paling maju di dunia, melampaui AS. Atas dasar peta jalan itu, China bergerak menuju masyarakat yang lebih baik secara bersama (xiaokang).

    Sesuai Kebutuhan

    Grand design pendidikan kita seyogianya dirancang untuk kepentingan serta kebutuhan rakyat kebanyakan, bukan untuk kepentingan elit politik sebagai program pencitraan diri.

    Menurut UU No 20 Tahun 2003 tentang Sisdiknas (Sistem Pendidikan Nasional) pendidikan dibagi ke dalam tiga katagori: informal adalah pendidikan di rumah tangga; formal merupakan pendidikan yang berjenjang dari SD hingga perguruan tinggi; sedangkan nonformal adalah pendidikan luar sekolah seperti life skill.

    Sebenarnya, life skill juga dapat diperoleh dari pendidikan formal. Sayangnya, kini Indonesia tidak lagi menerapkan pendidikan vokasi di SLTP sejak beberapa tahun yang lampau. Pendidikan vokasi di Indonesia, dimulai sejak SLTA dengan nama SMK. Sayangnya lagi, pelajaran di SMK juga lebih mengedepankan teori daripada praktik.

    Disarankan pula, tiap jenjang pendidikan vokasi menerapkan 70 persen praktik dan 30 persen teori. Jangan terbalik. Jika 70 persen teori dan 30 persen praktik, kita sudah lihat dan rasakan sendiri betapa tamatan-tamatan SMK kita banyak yang tidak kompeten di bidangnya.

    Setelah tamat SD, orangtua mengukur kemampuan kocek serta kebutuhannya untuk kelanjutan pendidikan anak-anak mereka. Bila orangtua yang berprofesi petani, sangat boleh jadi kebutuhan mereka, anak-anak dapat mengembangkan usaha pertanian ke arah yang lebih baik serta menyejahterakan. Maka pendidikan selanjutnya tentu ke arah itu. Begitu juga dengan kaum nelayan (tradisional) sangat mungkin berharap, anak-anaknya dapat lebih meningkatkan hasil tangkapan (hasil laut), juga harga jual yang layak dan lainnya.

    Sayangnya, saat ini di Indonesia tidak ada lagi pendidikan pertanian, kelautan, otomotif, komputer dan lain sebagainya untuk tingkat SLTP. Siswa harus belajar dulu tiga tahun di SLTP (SMP), baru dapat memasuki pendidikan vokasi di SMK. Bukankah hal ini akan memperbesar biaya atau pengeluaran? Ironisnya lagi, setelah tamat SMK, siswa-siswi kita pun sepertinya belum memiliki apa yang disebut life skill.***

    Penulis adalah peminat masalah sosial budaya. Menetap di Medan.